FUT(-)ILE: Avenear’s Design Futures Framework
Each studio has its own special blend of preferred tools and process to achieve a desired result. Avenear’s no different. Our methodology is composed of activities and processes sourced from a panoply of fields including design thinking, making and crafting, service design, systems thinking, strategic foresight, and futures thinking.
The big focus of our process is turning future insights into real world solutions through tactile projects. In other words, turning ideas into mocked-up designs, or thoughts to action. We’ve named our process the FUTILE framework. The strikethrough is key here, as the FUTILE framework stands for Future(s) Tactile, a process that is far from pointless or trivial, but instead can yield incomparable insights. It is non-futile. For ease of writing, it can also be referred to as FUT(-)ILE.
How it got its start
As designers, we're well accustomed to hearing about and using the double diamond method originally conceived by the British Design Council in 2005. It has served us well over the years, yet at Avenear, we believe it’s time to revisit the Double Diamond to offer an expanded process that covers futures exercises, systems mapping, and implications research to ultimately have a designed solution as output. Perhaps it shouldn’t even be a diamond, but we believe there’s a strength in challenging ourselves to systematically broaden and narrow our frames through the course of a project.
The truth is that if we want to complete a project we must move through a set of logical steps that can generate inputs and outputs to feed the next phase of work. In an ideal world we could forever iterate in each of these bubbles, yet realistically, we’re required to adopt a phased approach with a clear schedule in order to get the job done in time for our clients. In other words, with Avenear’s FUTILE process you’ve got to begin with Phase A before progressing to Phase B, C, or D. This is because each phase’s outputs acts as the input (or foundation) to the next phase. Yes, there’s still a messy front-end but there’s no limit to how often one can run through the A to D sequence, or how many times one steps backwards to revisit a previous phase to modify the overall outputs. It’s a bit like a formula, you see? So, without further a do, here’s a run-through of Avenear’s FUTILE method.
Overview
The method has four main phases roughly corresponding to investigatory timeframes. It begins with a dive from the past to the present, then from present to future, from future to future, and finally from future back to present. Each phase has its own specific goals and leans more heavily on a certain type of design or type of thinking.
Phase A: Foundational and contextual research
Past to Present using Design Research x Systems Mapping
The goal of this phase is to learn as much as we can from the industry, challenge, or system in question. This is the messy front-end, the deep dive into the unknown. We want to investigate as much as possible, follow our hunches, and take some time to explore the seemingly irrelevant because sometimes it’s in these dark corners that the levers of change are hiding.
In terms of outputs we’re looking to create in this phase, they primarily consist of visual maps and diagrams of the present system, industry, or challenge. It’s a way for us to have conversations about upcoming change and better understand the ripples it can have through the system. Beyond that, when we complete this phase we gain a better understanding of key challenges for future optimizations (in other words, the biggest pain points that need to be addressed, or the most broken aspects of the system), as well as a rough sizing of the disruption opportunity (how many barriers to innovation stand in the way, what’s the appetite for change?). These types of insights will help us better explore change and future opportunities.
To do:
Dive into its past, its “raison d’être” and evolution (big shifts)
Explore the theme as a shifting metaphor (historical analogies, unspoken belief)
Identify persistent drivers of change (long term evolutionary trends)
Preliminary research into ways the system, challenge, or industry is changing
Map out its barriers to innovation and its unspoken assumptions and beliefs
Identify and understand its key actors
Visualize/assess current experience
Identify key needs and critical desire/opportunities for change
Identify/explore approaches of solutions (around the world, culture, demographics, etc.)
Phase B: Change and the future
Present to Future using Futures Thinking x Systems Mapping
The next phase of work takes the longterm view that we just established and now looks at ways in which cracks are forming, shifts are coming and things are changing. The key outputs we’re looking to create here are an understanding of the ripple effects that these changes will/could have through the system and a clearer understanding of which trends will be critical in shaping the future. Furthermore this phase helps us better understand key elements we’d like to play a role in shaping, or key questions we’d like to solve.
To do:
Scan for change and explore signals
Identify critical uncertainties, vulnerable assumptions
Map implications and create future timelines
Explore change in tangential fields, other big industries that could have repercussions on this industry, challenge, system
Map out potential evolutions of the field (as metaphors)
Phase C: Making the futures personal
Futures to Futures using Speculative design x Experience/product design
The third phase shares much in common with the second phase, but this time we’re more focused on making the futures tactile, personal, and relatable. Using design crafting and prototyping, we’re interested in thinking through making. In exploring future ideas through an experience rather than the written word. In essence, we’re in the pursuit of illustrating future possibilities through immersive means.
Using potential future world scenarios, we can now design speculative products, services, businesses, and experiences to live in these environments. This helps us better identify what types of solutions might be most disruptive or well received.
To do:
Develop a range of possible futures for the theme through world building exercises
Imagine future products and services and create future speculations. Critically assess their implications/desirability
Create potential future timelines (speculative and strategic). Think both in terms of near and distant futures.
Design and visualization of preferable scenario (innovation vision)
Bring the future to life (turn scenarios into design fictions and immersive exhibits to involve broader public)
Challenge ourselves to make the future personal, actionable, recognizable (make it less sexy, less tech-centric, and less sci-fi)
Explore future narratives and POVs
Creation of immersive futures experience or exhibit
Obtain additional future perspectives from users, public, stakeholders thanks to future experience
Share perspectives with others
Phase D: Feeding foresight into design strategy
Future(s) to Present using Service & Product design x Innovation strategy
This phase is all about turning foresight, insights, and speculative design ideas into real world action. Now that we have a better understanding of what’s possible and what’s desirable, let’s create a plan to make it a reality. What will we pull from our previous more speculative design work to transform into a real world, near-term project (a sort of MVP to the future)?
To do:
Produce list of design criteria for newly identified future opportunity
Identify key ethical implications, questions to be addressed by future research
Design of “champion” speculative artifact to immortalize design vision
Creation of MVP of ultimate future vision
Initial rounds of near-future concept development of identified design strategy
Backcast and create roadmap to action (branching strategy)
Map out or visualize iterative changes through the system (how disruption will happen)
Using Avenear’s FUTILE methodology, we’re able to rigorously investigate a theme, understand its landscape and the ways in which it is and may change to finally gain a clearer understanding of where our design solution fits. This method offers a repeatable approach that delivers comparable analysis and quality of results between various themes of investigation. By using the FUTILE approach we can gain more confidence in our innovation strategy and ensure that a systems level change within an industry is possible.