Looking Back to Better Look Ahead
As futurists we’re naturally focused on the forward view. We’re itching to understand the present to better imagine future possibilities. We enjoy thinking through all things futuristic. We dig deep to uncover overlooked whispers of change. Yes, we’re great at looking forward, however, how many of us first spend time in the past before imagining the future?
Now you may be thinking: “well yes, but what’s the point of looking back? Of immersing yourself in dated points of view? You can’t change the past, nor do we want to repeat it. We’re hired to look ahead and change the future.” And that’s most certainly true! What we hope to demonstrate in this short post is the importance of a backwards approach to foresight. We’ll highlight the incredible value that’s to be gained from first looking back in time before then going forwards.
Future assumptions
Sohail Inayatullah’s Futures Triangle describes the balance required between past, present, and future outlooks. He describes it as the weight of the past, the push of the present, and the pull of the future. The weight of the past is certainly a good way of highlighting one of the reasons for looking back. Namely, identifying the ways in which the past constrains or informs the present. It’s the underlying assumptions, preferences, and beliefs that serve as a foundation to our future imaginations. Think of it as those little inside voices that say, “well, we can’t do that! We’ve always done it this way” or “that’s just the way the it’s always been done.”
By identifying those future assumptions (what we assume to be true of the future, based on past experience, knowledge, and data) we can better challenge taboos or propose a paradigm shift for an industry/topic. We can’t actively change what we don’t know, and in that same spirit we have to first understand what’s informing the current mindset before seeking to disrupt or redefine it.
A goal of all futurists should be to take the time to understand the patterns of change that led to the present. To uncover which trends are persisting and which have plateaued or become inconsequential.
Patterns of change
Next, a key advantage of investigating and understanding the past is to identify patterns of change at play. These can be trends that are ongoing or locked in the past. Ongoing long-term patterns of change can be thought of as big eras of an industry of topic of investigation. For example, thinking of education in terms of eras gives us the industrialization of education, the digitization of education, and the personalization of education. The only way to identify these bigger patterns is to take a long-term and high-level view of an industry/topic. Thinking through big shifts helps us highlight the pace of change of a specific topic. Note: the pace of change is not constant across topics.
Trends that are “locked” (limited/plateaued) in the past are those that provided a mini-revolution back in the day. Think of the introduction of the calculator, the social media platform, the credit card, etc. They tend to be technological or social shifts that inspire a new era within the industry/topic. These “locked” trends are the big shifts and drivers of change of history that have now become engrained in our present.
Inspiration
Another reason to look back is to find inspiration for future narratives. Venturing to the past enables us to see just how much, or how little, has actually changed. It allows us to surprise ourselves with emotions and questions. We might find out about something that makes us feel a little weird, a little incredulous that such a system or point of view could have existed. For example, just think back of the social dynamics of the nuclear families of 1950s, or the reprimands administered by a teacher in the 1910s. It begs us to think of our present day society and ask ourselves “what will seem so dated or ‘old-fashioned’ to a future citizen?” Alternatively, it also encourages us to remark on the behaviours that have persisted through decades, if not centuries. These behaviours will likely persist into the future, albeit in a modified manner.
Enjoying a special outdoor meal with friends and family is an experience that persists throughout human history.
In essence, taking the time to understand the past is a chance for us to flex and warm up our time traveling muscles. Ultimately, doing so will help you better contextualize your future investigation(s) within a continuum of time. We have to understand where we came from if we want to understand where we’re likely to be going.
If you’d like to see how Avenear likes to immerse itself in the past, take a look at speculative.space, our side project that likes to seek inspiration for the future from the past.